The current economy is teaching us our 100 year flood lesson. It’s less like a flood and more like a super volcano eruption. What have we learned? Plenty! But we are still testing the economy. It appears to me that the business and workers in the worst shape are the ones that were doing most to drive the front of the economic engine. The innovators, the new businesses, the independent contractors that perform skills so new and innovative they were not yet a job classification at the Fortune 500.
And yet we look around and see everything moving along as if all is well. Perhaps it’s the many union, city, state, and government jobs that are protected from the realities of the actual economy. The workers at these jobs may indeed fear cuts but are not affected immediately like small business owners. If I don’t sell something this week for my company to build then I don’t get a paycheck.
The American Recovery and Reinvestment Act will put money into the economy with an accountability expectation (Recovery.gov) that we can all monitor the results. I expect that this bill is not significant to the damage already done by the failed mortgage and banking industry. As a marketer, I will give you my opinion on the economy. This is an important consideration for how we spend budgets. This will also provide you insight about any political bias. I’m pro United States of America. I want the very best for our amazing country and the very best for the future of my (and your) children. I’m a registered Republican but quite happy to see Obama in the White House. I too am ready for change.
So as we put our economic outlook hats on, I predict that at this time next year we will be no better off than today. This is not a negative prediction. On the contrary, it’s a positive one. The economic house of cards is clearly more unstable than ever before. If we can change consumer confidence for the better, begin financing business growth, and can get foreclosed homes cleaned up in the next 12 months we will have a great chance at starting a new growth in 2010. Perhaps by 2016 we will see our home values match our paper valuations of 2006.